Pick a betting system, set a bankroll, and run it through thousands of simulated baccarat sessions on our rules engine. You will see what these systems actually do to your money - the swings, the bust risk and the long-run outcome. No system beats the house edge; this shows the risk each one carries.
Press run to simulate 1,000 sessions of this system.
How often the bankroll hit zero before the session ended. High here means the system regularly wipes out - not occasionally.
The typical ending bankroll across all 1,000 runs. The most honest "what usually happens" number - not the lucky runs.
The bad sessions. One in ten runs ended at or below this - the downside you should plan for, not ignore.
The favourable runs. Tempting to focus on, but they are the exception, never the expectation.
On the chart, each line is one session. green lines survived to the end; red lines went bust; the gold dashed line is your starting bankroll. Watch how the aggressive systems cluster upward early, then plunge.
| System | What it does | Bankroll risk | Reality |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | Same stake every hand | Lowest | Slow, honest variance - the baseline |
| Martingale | Double after every loss | Severe | Frequent tiny wins, then a wipeout |
| Paroli | Double after a win, reset after 3 | Moderate | Risks winnings, not the bankroll |
| Fibonacci | Step up the sequence on a loss | High | Slower ruin than Martingale, same fate |
| D’Alembert | +1 unit on loss, -1 on win | Moderate | Gentler, but still cannot beat the edge |
Low bust rate, gentle drift downward. The honest baseline: you lose the edge slowly, but you rarely wipe out.
Many sessions tick up nicely - then a losing streak hits the table max and a chunk go bust. The classic illusion.
A small bankroll can't absorb the progression. Bust rate climbs fast - proof that size, not system, drives survival.
Every progression system is a way of rearranging bet sizes - bigger after losses, or bigger after wins. None of them changes the fact that each hand carries the same house edge. Over thousands of hands the maths is fixed: you lose, on average, the edge times everything you stake.
What systems do change is the shape of the risk. Martingale converts a string of small wins into one catastrophic loss when a losing streak finally arrives - and it always does. Flat betting spreads the same expected loss into gentle, survivable swings. The simulator above makes that trade-off visible: watch how often the aggressive systems hit zero.
Use it to understand risk, not to chase a winning formula - there isn't one. See the house-edge calculator for the maths behind every bet.
Each run plays thousands of independent sessions. Every hand is dealt by the same 8-deck engine that powers our odds explorer and trainer, settling on Banker at its true 0.4586 win and 0.95 payout. Your chosen system sets the next stake from the last result (flat keeps it level, Martingale doubles after a loss, Paroli after a win, and so on), and a session ends when the bankroll cannot cover the next required bet, that is a bust.
We then report the bust probability, the median outcome, and the 10th and 90th percentile bankroll curves, so you see the typical result and the tails, not a single cherry-picked run. Assumptions: 8 decks, standard rules, independent hands, and your stated bankroll, base stake and table limit.
No. They reshape short-term swings but never change the house edge. Over a long session the expected loss is the same whichever system you use - the difference is only in how the risk is distributed.
It only delays the problem. Doubling after each loss grows the stake so fast that a run of 7-8 losses (which happens regularly) exceeds the table maximum or your bankroll. The simulator shows the bust rate climbing with session length.
Flat betting, by a wide margin - it never escalates the stake. It still loses the house edge over time, but it is the most survivable. Run flat vs Martingale above to compare.
Banker's lower edge (about 1.06%) slows losses slightly, but it does not turn any system positive. It is the better bet, not a winning one.
Gambling should be fun, never a way to make money. Only stake what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, free, confidential support is available, see our responsible gambling page for BeGambleAware, GamCare and GAMSTOP.