See the true probabilities behind every baccarat bet - how often it wins, loses or pushes, what it pays, and roughly what to expect over a session. Every figure is computed from our baccarat rules engine on an 8-deck shoe.
| Bet | Win | Lose | Push | Payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.86% | 44.62% | 9.52% | 1 : 0.95 | 1.06% |
| Player | 44.62% | 45.86% | 9.52% | 1 : 1 | 1.24% |
| Tie | 9.52% | 90.48% | - | 8 : 1 | 14.36% |
Here is the trap: winning often is not the same as being the best bet. Banker only wins a little more than Player, yet its lower house edge makes it the smarter long-run choice once the commission and drawing rules are factored in. And the Tie wins under 10% of the time - its 8:1 payout looks generous but never covers those odds, which is why a rare-but-big-paying bet can still be the worst value on the table.
Lowest cost - wins most often and carries the smallest edge.
Almost as good, no commission - but always a touch behind Banker.
Over 13x the cost of Banker - the big payout never makes up for how rarely it lands.
Baccarat odds come straight from the fixed drawing rules - there are no decisions to make once your bet is placed, so the probabilities are the same on every hand. Three things explain almost everything about the table:
Every probability on this page comes from the same 8-deck baccarat engine that powers our simulator and trainer, so the tools never disagree. The expected cost of a bet is its house edge, where for a single-payout bet:
Worked through for the Tie, which lands about 9.52% of the time and pays 8 to 1: (1 − 0.0952) − (8 × 0.0952) = 0.9048 − 0.7612 = 0.1436, i.e. 14.36%. Assumptions: 8 decks, standard payouts (Player 1:1, Banker 0.95:1 after 5% commission, Tie 8:1) and independent hands. A table with a lower Tie payout carries an even higher edge.
Use the house-edge calculator to turn these odds into a cost, the simulator to see the variance they create, or read the full baccarat odds guide.
On an 8-deck shoe, Banker wins about 45.86% of hands, Player about 44.62%, and roughly 9.52% are ties. Excluding ties, Banker wins about 50.7% of decided hands.
Banker draws its third card after seeing the Player's, so the drawing rules give it a small, fixed statistical edge. The 5% commission on Banker wins exists to balance exactly that advantage.
Under 10% of the time - about one hand in eleven. That rarity is why the Tie bet, despite its 8:1 payout, carries a house edge above 14%.
Not meaningfully. With eight decks reshuffled regularly, each hand is effectively independent - past results do not shift the odds, so chasing streaks does not work.
Gambling should be fun, never a way to make money. Only stake what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, free, confidential support is available, see our responsible gambling page for BeGambleAware, GamCare and GAMSTOP.